University of Minnesota economist Narayana Kocherlakota reflects on the state of modern macroeconomics.

Click here to read the results of a new survey of AEA members. This updates previous survey results, summarized in Chapter 2 of my favorite textbook.

Note that 83 percent agree that "the United States should eliminate remaining tariffs and other barriers to trade." I presume that would apply to tarif ...

The CBO blog on the health plan du jour:

the Chairman’s proposal would reduce the federal deficit by $16 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. After that, the added revenues and cost savings are projected to grow more rapidly than the cost of the coverage expansion. Consequently, CBO expects ...

Bob Gordon surveys the state of macroeconomics.

Thanks to David Warsh for the pointer.

Disappointing news:

Obama to impose tariffs on Chinese tires

President Barack Obama on Friday slapped punitive tariffs on all car and light truck tires entering the United States from China in a decision that could anger the strategically important Asian powerhouse but placate union supporters i ...

Jim Capretta on the President's healthcare speech:

The president has promised for months now that he would have a plan to “bend the cost-curve.” Indeed, even tonight, he spoke of the plans being worked on in Congress as if they would address the problem of rising costs and improve our ...

The dean of Harvard Medical School weighs in on the current debate. An excerpt:

there is our inefficient and inequitable system of tax-advantaged, employer-based health insurance. While the federal tax code promotes overspending by making the majority unaware of the true cost of their insurance a ...

In response to my previous post, an economist at a financial firm emails me the following analysis:

I am following the discussion on measuring the severity of recessions.

I prefer the unemployment rate for historical analysis. In olden days, it was likely better measured than real GDP. And before 194 ...

Barry Eichengreen's answer (from a few months back).

The BBC reports that France is set to impose a carbon tax. Unfortunately, there is no discussion in the story of cutting other taxes. The goal of Pigovian taxation is to switch toward more efficient taxes, not to raise the overall tax burden.

Update: The Post reports some good news: "the government e ...

"Inspiring."

That's what I was told about the President's speech to schoolchildren when I asked my favorite 5th grader about it last night at the Mankiw family dinner table. He even recounted the story of young Barack Obama having to wake up at 4:30 am for his lessons.

Good job, Mr. President.

Click here to watch talks given this past summer at the NBER by John List and Michael Kremer.

Click here for the list.

Of course, these data do not allow one to distinguish the treatment effect from self-selection based on innate characteristics.

Insights from University of Chicago economist Luigi Zingales:

We thus stand at a crossroads for American capitalism. One path would channel popular rage into political support for some genuinely pro-market reforms, even if they do not serve the interests of large financial firms....

The alternat ...

Volker Wieland's answer:

Once you allow for a significant role of forward-looking behaviour by households and firms, there is no multiplier. The expectation of future tax increases, or rising government debt and future interest rate increases leads to a reduction in private consumption and investme ...

Source of graph. Click here for my interpretation of it.

Volker Wieland's answer:

Once you allow for a significant role of forward-looking behaviour by households and firms, there is no multiplier. The expectation of future tax increases, or rising government debt and future interest rate increases leads to a reduction in private consumption and investme ...